Longtime island brokers say they have never seen a real estate market like the one playing out this season.
“Schizophrenic,” says AMAC Alex MacWilliam broker Buzz MacWilliam. Marsha Sherry, broker at The Moorings Realty Sales Co., says it is “crazy – like a rodeo out there.”
Dale Sorensen Sr., with characteristic understatement, calls it “unusual.” Everyone says it is unpredictable.
Despite the topsy-turvy state of play, island brokerages are holding their own, with sales volume steady or up slightly compared to last year. Top agents are having similar success.
Brokers attribute the unsettled market to continuing aftershocks of the Covid-19 real estate boom, rising home insurance rates, new regulations that have upped the costs of condo living, and a general feeling of uncertainty in society.
Buyers lack urgency because inventory is steadily increasing and they don’t fear losing a home by waiting, while many sellers still cling to the memory of heady pandemic price gains, creating a disconnect that agents must bridge to get deals done.
“The market is unpredictable on a weekly basis,” says MacWilliam, whose family has been selling houses in Vero Beach for 75 years.
“Part of it is what’s going on in the world and with our government, the economics, wars out there in the world, the stock market. It has people unsettled. People are concerned about what is going on and uncertain about the future, and that can affect the market a little bit.”
In an example of the market’s wacky behavior, Sherry has seen condos close for shockingly low prices and record high prices in the same neighborhoods in recent months. “I don’t even know where to begin talking about our condo market,” says Sherry, who started at the Moorings in 1996.
“Sure, we are seeing some rock-bottom prices, mostly driven by children who have inherited properties from their parents that they don’t want to keep or can’t afford to keep, and just want sold as fast as possible, but we have also had a couple of record-high condo sales this year, including one of $2.8 million.”
The Moorings is a condo-rich community with about 750 units and with all the headwinds buffeting condo sales, the number of closings was down about 35 percent as of mid-March compared to the year before – but in another paradox, the median price to date for condos sold in the community is up substantially, from $732,000 to $950,000!
“The market is hard to figure out right now,” says Sorensen.
Sales vary wildly from neighborhood to neighborhood and even street to street.
“I have a beautiful property west of town in a highly sought-after neighborhood where we have had tremendous interest as far as showings,” says AMAC Realtor Kit Fields. “Of all our listings, it is the No. 1 property for number of showings, but it hasn’t sold. Buyers are coming back for second and third showings and still not pulling the trigger.
“It seems like they are waiting to see what happens with the economy and what happens with our market, because it seems to be sluggish.”
“I have a luxury condo that has been on the market for 45 days and we had 11 or 12 showings, which is phenomenal for a condo, but it hasn’t sold,” says Candace Kennedy, also an AMAC Realtor. “Buyers don’t have that sense of urgency.”
At the same time, in the same market, a home in the Vero Beach Country Club neighborhood that Kennedy co-listed recently, provoked a pandemic-style “frenzy among buyers,” and sold quickly. “People were all over it,” Kennedy says.
Countywide, the number of condo sales was down 19.5 percent, from 77 to 62, while the median price dropped 12 percent, from $325,000 to $285,000, according to MLS figures.
At the same time, condo inventory in the county increased 28 percent in February compared to a year before, creating a 13.5-month supply that makes it a buyer’s market for condominiums, without question.
Meanwhile, single-family house sales have remained strong.
“Last year, 53 homes had closed on barrier island by March 19,” says Sherry. “This year at the same time, 59 single-family sales had closed.”
Countywide, the number of house sales was up 21 percent in February, from 171 to 208, while the average sales price jumped 29 percent, from $563,000 to $727,000.
Home-sale dollar volume was up a whopping 57 percent, from $96 million to $151 million, while inventory increased 24 percent, getting closer to pre-pandemic norms.
As of February, there was a 6.1-month supply of houses, which MacWilliam says makes it a balanced market, with homebuyers and sellers having equal leverage.
Probably the biggest paradox in the current crazy market is that island brokerages have continued to do well despite the whirlwind of social and economic forces that challenge them.
MacWilliam said sales volume at his 70-agent brokerage is up about 1 percent compared to last year at this time – not a banner increase, but not a decrease, either.
Dale Sorensen Sr. said sales are up at his eponymous billion-dollar brokerage, too, and Sherry said her dollar volume has remained steady, despite fewer transactions.
Part of that solid performance in a tough market can be chalked up to the irreplaceable savvy of island brokers such as MacWilliam, Sorensen and Sherry, who have 125 years of island real estate experience between them.
But the brokers give most of the credit to their hardworking, ambitious agents – and to Vero Beach itself.
“Erika [Ross] and Daina [Bertrand] are number one and number two in transactions in area 12,” says Sherry, noting her agents’ success in the section of the island south of the 17th St. Causeway.
“Vero Beach is one of the most desirable markets in Florida,” says MacWilliam. “Buyers know that, and sellers know that.”
“Look around you,” said Sherry on a mild, sunny day in mid-March at the country club community where she works. “If you’re coming from a cold, high-tax state like New Jersey, this is always going to look pretty good. Our island is a highly desirable place, and nothing is going to change that.”
