The astonishing price increases seen in the island real estate market during the heart of the pandemic boom excited homeowners, and brought joy to sellers.
But the broad-based, often dramatic run-up in prices, with some properties doubling in value in a year or two, also made many nervous.
Those who remembered the property boom in the early part of this century – and subsequent collapse in 2007-2009 – couldn’t help but wonder if another crash might be coming.
But the prices have held. They are real.
And Zillow, a massive online source of real estate information, is expecting 32963 island home prices to rise 1.5 percent in 2025, which may be a lowball number.
“I think prices will continue stable and rising,” says John’s Island Real Estate broker Bob Gibb.
“People are more optimistic going into 2025 than they have been going into most other years we have seen.”
Price gains in Vero Beach have historically been incremental, and longtime market observers had a hard time believing that a house that sold for $2 million in 2021 could magically be worth $4 million two years later, still sitting on the same lot in the same location, composed of the same concrete, lumber and glass.
Even the much more common 50- and 75-percent gains in 2021 and 2022 seemed to be defying economic gravity and engendered a faint dread.
But a wide range of real estate data sources in addition to Zillow – including Douglas Elliman, ONE Sotheby’s and Redfin – tell similar stories.
The bulk of the pandemic price gains came between late 2020 or early 2021 and spring or summer 2022, depending on if you look at median sale price, average sale price or price per square foot.
Mega-brokerage and data aggregator Redfin, for instance, reports that prior to the pandemic, the median sale price of an island single-family home was in the $600,000 range. Between January 2021 and July 2022, that price doubled to $1.2 million.
Since then, the median sale price for a single-family home in 32963 has bounced back and forth between $1.2 million and $1 million, occasionally pushing slightly above $1.2 million or dipping slightly below $1 million, but staying solidly in that range, according to Redfin’s analysis.
Zillow’s home value index for 32963 includes a line graph that shows an average island home value of $732,000 in August 2020. From there the graph line goes up like the side of a steep mountain to a peak value of $1,329,000 in August 2022, a gain of more than 80 percent in two years.
From August 2022 until the end of 2024, a 28-month period, the line stays horizontal, moving straight and steady across the graph with just minor fluctuations to November 2024, when the average island home value was $1,331,000, according to the company’s calculations.
Price per square foot, which is regarded as a better market indicator by many brokers, shows the same price stability.
In January 2020, just before the onset of COVID-19, the average price per square foot for a single-family home in 32963 was $346, according to data compiled by Douglas Elliman.
On the Douglas Elliman chart, the covid price gain began in July 2020 and continued until April 2022, rising steeply from $346 per square foot to a brief all-time peak of $767.
The final 10 percent of that jump was market mania, and by June 2022, the average price had dropped back to a more realistic $695 per square foot, which was nearly double where it started.
It has stayed in a range between 600 and 700 in the 2.5 years since then, ending 2024 with a 90-day average price of 655 and a 7-day average of $675.
In its 2024 Mid-Year Luxury Outlook Report, ONE Sotheby’s International Realty reported that price per square foot was up 3 percent in the second quarter in 32963 compared to the second quarter of 2023.
“The price-per-square-foot data certainly supports the idea that these prices are here to stay,” says Richard Boga, who helps lead the O’Dare Boga Dobson team at ONE Sotheby’s in Vero Beach. “There isn’t something that is going to take us back in the other direction.”
“Price per square foot is a pretty good market indicator,” agrees ONE Sotheby’s broker associate Cindy O’Dare.
While an average per square foot price nearly double what it was four years ago is happy news for island homeowners, it’s not an accurate gauge of value island wide.
County property records show that values range from about $300 to more than $2,500 per square foot in 32963.
Many variables, including the age, condition and location of the house, impact the value of its square footage. As always, newer or well-renovated homes that don’t need any work and have lower insurance costs tend to sell for more, and neighborhood makes a huge difference.
Oceanfront homes get big per-square-foot prices, followed by riverfront houses.
Among the neighborhoods, homes in club communities with many amenities tend to have the highest average square foot prices, according to O’Dare and Boga, because each square foot carries not just the value of the house but a share of the value of golf courses, tennis courts, clubhouses and other club features.
John’s Island is at or near the top of the list, with a 2024 sale where a buyer paid $2,657 per square foot for a brand-new oceanfront home – slightly more than the average cost for a luxury penthouse in Manhattan according to cityrealty.com, which pegs that average at $2,621.
“Our average price per square foot in 2024 was $1,261 for houses and $1,521 for condos,” says John’s Island Real Estate’s Gibb. “We’ve had condo sales pushing $2,400 or $2,500 per foot.”
Those averages are based on gross square footage, which includes un-air-conditioned areas such as garages and lanais. They would be much higher if based on air-conditioned square footage, which is the norm in the rest of the island.
Homes in Windsor, Orchid Island Golf & Beach Club and the Estate Section also command high prices, according to O’Dare, who sold an Estate Section home in 2023 that closed for $2,448 per square foot.
“Outside the gated communities, you will find the highest prices in communities with particular cache, such as Riomar,” said Boga, an assessment backed by county records.
According to the Property Appraiser’s office, non-waterfront per-square-foot prices in Riomar in 2024 ranged from the low of about $800s to $1,490, which was for a newer home in the Old Oaks development.
Per-square foot prices for single-family homes in Central Beach, another desirable area between the bridges with growing cache, range from about $500 to $850, close to the island-wide average, though there are outliers on both sides of that range.
The persistence of pandemic values is not confined to island houses.
Island condos started the pandemic around $280 per square foot and hit a brief mania high of about $750 in February 2022. They had dropped back to $550 three months later and have stayed in a $450-$550 range during the two and half years since then, closing out 2025 at $500 per square foot, according to Douglas Elliman data.
Mainland property, likewise, has held onto covid price gains. Countywide, houses started the pandemic around $180 per square foot, rose to a high of $270 in the boom and closed out 2024 at $275.
One factor keeping prices high is the rising cost of construction.
“Everyone knows that everything costs more now than it did four years ago, including the cost of construction, due to higher supply costs and the increased cost of labor,” says Boga.
“When the cost of new construction goes up, the value of existing real estate goes up, because that is the alternative to new construction.”
Besides inflation, the desirability of the Vero market and a vast increase in wealth during and since the pandemic also support the new, higher prices for island property. In just the past two years, the S&P 500 has gained more than 50 percent in value and buyers’ portfolios are loaded with fresh funds.
“We are continuing to get a big push down through the Northeast and we have a lot of inherited wealth coming this way,” observes Gibb.
