Everywhere I’ve gone in this Republican-dominated enclave during this bizarre election season, I’ve taken a mental note when I’ve come across anything with the name “Trump” emblazoned on it.
I’ve seen “Trump” signs posted alongside the road, “Trump” bumper stickers on cars, trucks and SUVs, and even some of those bright-red “Make America Great Again” hats.
But not many.
Despite our political demographics, visible enthusiasm for Donald Trump is notably lacking here. This is especially so on Vero Beach’s barrier island, one of the most Republican bastions in Florida.
Not only is pro-Trump campaign paraphernalia scarce on both sides of the lagoon – I saw far more signs and bumper stickers in support of Mitt Romney in the run-up to Election Day 2012 – but the island’s affluent and historically generous Republican donors seem unenthused about the controversial candidate.
Four years ago, island Republicans contributed nearly $1.2 million to Romney’s presidential campaign and gave another $1.1 million to the political action committee supporting him.
Earlier in the current presidential race, they delivered more than $950,000 to Jeb Bush’s bid for the party’s nomination and contributed more than $1 million to the Right To Rise USA Super PAC that backed him.
Island-based support for Trump pales in comparison.
As of Monday, Republican donors from the 32963 ZIP Code had contributed less than $40,000 to the New York real-estate tycoon’s campaign and just over $100,000 to his Super PACs.
The only big-money, pro-Trump contribution came from John Childs, who remains the most munificent donor to Republican causes. He gave $100,000 to the Make America Number 1 Super PAC.
That amount, however, is far less than the $1 million check he wrote to Romney’s Super PAC.
“It’s really hard to get a read on this one,” Indian River County Republican Party Chairman Tom Lockwood said. “This whole campaign has been – how shall I put it? – unorthodox, so it’s difficult to explain what’s happening.
“I know those . . . [big island donors] are diehard Republicans.”
So why aren’t they reaching into their deep pockets to help Trump defeat a Democrat despised by most Republicans?
Could it be that island Republicans who threw their support behind Bush were turned off by the boorish way Trump disparaged the former Florida governor, particularly during the GOP debates?
“There might be some fallout from that,” Lockwood said. “Jeb has a lot of friends here, and seeing him attacked the way he was probably didn’t set well with them.”
When I tracked down several of the island’s biggest donors this past summer, I found little enthusiasm for Trump.
Many of them used words such as “conflicted” and “disillusioned,” saying they were put off by the bluster, belittlement and bogus claims on which Trump has built his campaign. They were repulsed by his juvenile name-calling, alarmed by his harsh tone and worried about his lack of substance.
A few said they didn’t trust him, mostly because he seemed to possess no core principles.
Still, Trump received 43 percent of the vote in this county in March’s Republican primary, finishing well ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (23 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (15 percent) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (10 percent).
And Lockwood said support for Trump has grown since he won the nomination in July.
“A lot of people have gotten involved in supporting him,” the local party leader said. “Our mission now is to make sure Republicans get out and vote. This election likely will be decided by who shows up.”
But will they?
Will local Republicans turn out in big-enough numbers to vote for a nominee who, according to every poll I’ve seen, is the least-popular, major-party presidential candidate in the history of the republic?
Better yet: If local Republicans do go to the polls, will they vote for him?
As the campaign enters its final month, there’s no way to know – because there’s no way to read the signs, or the hats, or the bumper stickers.
Or the lack of them.
What I do know – based on conversations with dozens of local GOP voters throughout the past few months – is that Republicans here seem to fall into the same categories as Republicans across the country.
There’s a core of staunch Trump supporters who wholly embrace his America-is-a-mess message, take-no-prisoners tone and anything-goes antics. They don’t care about fact-checkers, media criticism or his tax returns. They believe him when he says the system is “rigged.”
There are others who say they’ll vote for Trump because they’re Republicans, he’s the party’s nominee and they could never bring themselves to cast a ballot for a Democrat, especially Clinton.
Then there’s the lesser-of-two-evils bunch – those who admit a Trump presidency is likely to be a disaster but argue that putting Clinton in the White House would be worse.
Finally, many of those who described themselves as principled conservatives said they simply could not, in good conscience, vote for Trump.
Some of them said they will not vote for Trump or Clinton, selecting either a third-party candidate or casting ballots for only down-ticket Republicans. Others said they were seriously considering voting for Clinton, because they believed that – despite her ideological differences – she was the lesser of two evils and they needed to make sure Trump doesn’t win.
It is also possible some voters are not saying what is really on their minds. Some local Republicans may be afraid, for business or personal reasons, to openly support a candidate who has offended so many people, even though they plan to vote for him.
“That’s why you can’t trust the polls,” one Trump supporter told me, asking that I not use his name. “A lot of people who plan to vote for Trump won’t tell anyone.”
Of course, it’s also possible some local Republicans who won’t vote for Trump are telling their GOP friends and neighbors they will support the GOP candidate while actually planning to vote for Clinton.
There’s no way to know until the ballots are cast and counted on Nov. 8 – and even then, not everyone will believe what they’re seeing.
“We’ve never experienced this kind of political environment,” Lockwood said.
