HURRICANE: Two models predict Invest 90 could be Cat 3 by Wednesday

By Lisa Zahner8:30 p.m. Friday, August 14ATLANTIC OCEAN — Based on surface-water temperatures and atmospheric conditions, two computer models run this morning, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GDFL) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) Intensity Model, are both predicting that Invest 90, the 30 mph tropical low off the Cape Verde Islands, will become a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday, with winds exceeding 110 mph and the ability to drop nearly 2 inches of rain per hour.The 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook published by the National Hurricane Center in Miami said “this system is gradually becoming better organized” and is giving Invest 90 a good chance (greater than 50 percent) of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. At 8 p.m., Invest 90 had sustained winds of 30 mph with higher gusts and was moving westward at about 15 mph. Though Invest 90 it is far away from the U.S. mainland, it is being closely watched. Models produced by the members of the Global Forecast System Ensemble shown here are in a fair amount of agreement about the direction of the system. Click on the image to enlarge – source the Weather Underground.The 8 p.m. discussion also said that the “former tropical depression located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is still regenerating and could become once again a tropical cyclone tonight or early Saturday. There is a high chance (greater than 50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyslone during the next 48 hours.” That tropical low has sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving westward at about 15 mph. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system tonight and again on Saturday.The next tropical weather outlook from the NHC is expected at 2 a.m., unless conditions warrant a public advisory at 11 p.m.

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